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WHO IS TENMANGU SHIOUJI?
(my hypotheses on the subject, written having read up to 16 in English, and having some knowledge of spoilers afterward)

 

SCENARIO A: Tenmangu actually is missing; ie, not a member of the current cast.
PROS
: There is no definitive proof that he is a member of the current cast, and the majority of the cast is too young or otherwise ineligible for the honor.
CONS
: The continuation of his research does indicate that he's still alive and involved in the plot.
MY TWO YEN
: You can't say a lot on this either way, but I seriously doubt it. There's been a LOT of hints and foreshadowing that he's not quite as missing as he'd have you believe.

SCENARIO B: Tenmangu is Il Palazzo
PROS
: Rikdo has repeatedly and blatantly hinted that Tenmangu is connected to ACROSS (characters will muse as to where Tenmangu is only to have the scene change directly to the ACROSS base). Il Palazzo knows about Ropponmatsu and has clearly been involved with similar experiments. Kabapu could easily be lying about Il Palazzo's presence in Solaria.
CONS
: Tenmangu is NOT a Solarian, but Il Palazzo is shown to be completely out of synch with the world around him (after all, he does not even know what a vending machine is). While Il Palazzo has canonly lost a great deal of memory, that's a peculiar bit of memory to lose.
MY TWO YEN
: There are just too many awkward problems here. If you put any stock in Solaria at all (and you should, since Kabapu has been proven to be older than he seems), it doesn't add up.

SCENARIO C: Tenmangu is one of Il Palazzo's personalities (essentially, if Il Palazzo has somehow been resurrected in Tenmangu's body)
PROS: All of the pros listed above Also, while the manga has never explicitly stated that Il Palazzo was not around for the past 20,000 years, Kabapu's surprise in seeing him would certainly indicate it.
CONS: If this is the case, logic would dictate that the Tenmangu personality is the one portrayed early on, and the true Il Palazzo personality would be the one that manifests later. So the question becomes this: Does Tenmangu have any motivation to act like Il Palazzo? Any whatsoever?
MY TWO YEN
: This seems to be the obvious conclusion... but it's a little too obvious.

SCENARIO D: Tenmangu is Miwa
PROS: Miwa's drastic (and fake, as pointed out by Misaki) personality change is for the lecherous; in a flashback, Tenmangu is shown to have a similar mindset. Miwa clearly has access to Tenmangu's research. Miwa's shrine to herself. Miwa's capabilities in regard to programming Ropponmatsu. The way Shiouji almost says that his mother is the one who's really missing. With his knowledge, it is probably well-within Tenmangu's capabilities to turn himself into a woman. He could "go into hiding" yet remain in his son's life.
CONS: What happened to the real Miwa that he feels the need to do this? There are just a lot of gaps to be filled in.
MY TWO YEN: If I had to pick one theory to say is definitely correct, this one is way ahead of the others. It just makes sense in a lot of ways.

SCENARIO E: Tenmangu is Momochi
PROS: She looks almost exactly like Shiouji. She goes out of her way to avoid Shiouji. She always seems to believe/humor Kabapu. She's right under Kabapu's mustache.
CONS
: This one is one hell of a long shot.
MY TWO YEN: Momochi is the dark horse in the campaign, sure. I really can't honestly say I think she's Tenmangu, but I'm rooting for her. :<b

SCENARIO F: Tenmangu is Miwa AND Il Palazzo (one personality Il Palazzo, one personality Tenmangu, and the Tenmangu personality either pretends to be Miwa or is controlling Robo-Miwa)
PROS: All of the pros for Scenarios C and D, plus the fact that Il Palazzo disappears just before Miwa shows up and they never seem to coincide.
CONS: If Tenmangu is Miwa, he wouldn't have to order the girls to kidnap Ropponmatsu; he could simply steal her - while it's heavily indicated that Miwa did line up the events that resulted in Il Palazzo getting Ropponmatsu, I find it interesting that it took two volumes for it to happen. Miwa's actions may benefit ACROSS now, but I think it's pretty unlikely that she's doing anything for their benefit, or anything directly helpful.
MY TWO YEN: This is a little too complicated even for Excel Saga. Besides, with a memory that bad, how is he supposed to pull off being Miwa?

 

IF TENMANGU IS MIWA, WHERE IS MIWA?

SCENARIO 1: Miwa is dead
PROS: It would explain the shrine, and why Tenmangu would feel the need to pretend to be her. Also, it's a bit of a stretch, but it might even explain why Excel, when she momentarily gets her memories back in volume 4, feels the need to apologize.
CONS: Not enough information.
MY TWO YEN: It's possible.

SCENARIO 2: Miwa is Excel
PROS: Excel is a good candidate for the real Miwa. She has more than just basic knowledge of science, her Teriha personality is a lot quieter and calmer, and she integrates almost instantly with the Shiouji family.
CONS: She looks nothing like Miwa; in fact, she presumably looks like someone from Solaria, because Kabapu recognizes her as resembling an old acquaintance. Besides, why exactly would that happen? And while this would work if Tenmangu is doubling as Il Palazzo (which doesn't make a lot of sense), why does Excel have so much love for Il Palazzo? Also, Teriha and Excel would have to actually be separate personalities (meaning, she's gone through the same thing Il Palazzo has, Teriha would be an anmesiac Miwa personality and Excel would be some dead Solarian).
MY TWO YEN: There are just too many unanswered questions, and it's way more likely that Excel is a Solarian princess.